As Behavioural Investment Counsellors, we’ve long believed two things: that no one can reliably forecast the economy, and no one can time the markets. Recent events have reinforced these truths once again. Investors who tried to sidestep uncertainty by moving to cash during past panics now find themselves locked out of the recovery. Their portfolios may never catch up. Their financial plans are likely in tatters. And their retirements? At risk.

Why does this happen? Because, unaided, human nature never learns. It reacts. It panics. It forgets.

But history remembers.

For comparison purposes, we’ll use the default for a basket of diversified enduring businesses, the S&P 500. Had you invested in the S&P 500 at the peak of the dot-com bubble in March 2000 and stayed invested through every subsequent crisis, you’d have more than sextupled your money by the end of June 2025. That’s through two of the worst bear markets since the Great Depression and five other periods of gut-wrenching volatility.

This quarter century has been a behavioural crucible. A perfect test of the investor’s resolve. A vivid reminder of the power of patience, discipline, and guidance. And for us, a masterclass in the value we provide.

Let’s revisit these seven episodes—not to dwell on the drama, but to reinforce the enduring lesson: every panic felt different. But everyone ended up the same.

1. The Dot-Com Collapse (2000–2002)

The most extreme market mania in history gave way to a brutal crash. A 49% drop over 929 days, compounded by recession, the 9/11 attacks, and massive corporate fraud (Enron, WorldCom, Tyco). Trust in financial reporting vanished. But the crisis passed, and the market recovered.

2. The Global Financial Crisis (2007–2009)

The collapse of the housing and credit bubble triggered a near-global financial shutdown. Lehman failed. AIG was nationalized. Stocks fell 56.8% in 517 days. Only massive government intervention stabilized the system. From that panic emerged a historic bull market.

3. The European Debt Crisis (2011)

Few remember it now, but fears that Greece, Italy, and the eurozone could collapse drove a 19.4% decline in just 157 days. U.S. debt was downgraded for the first time. Panic gripped the markets. It passed.

4. The Christmas Eve Massacre (2018)

A combination of central bank rate hikes, the China trade war, and a U.S. government shutdown sparked a near 20% plunge in just 95 days. The market bottomed on December 24. By Boxing Day, it was already rebounding.

5. COVID Crash (2020)

The world shut down. GDP collapsed. Stocks plunged 33.9% in 33 days. Then came a historic recovery, led by decisive action from the central bank and governments. The market returned to pre-pandemic highs within five months.

6. The Inflation Spike (2022)

Inflation surged to 9.1%, prompting the fastest rate hikes in history. Stocks and bonds both fell sharply. The S&P 500 dropped 25.4% over 282 days. And yet, the market stabilized and moved forward once again.

7. The Tariff Typhoon (2024)

Amid renewed fears of global trade wars, stocks tumbled nearly 19% in less than two months. When tariffs were postponed, the market snapped back. Investors who bailed out missed the rebound.

What We Learn

Every one of these episodes was unique in cause, but identical in outcome. Panic. Decline. Recovery.

And here’s the deeper truth: these downturns aren’t interruptions to the long-term growth of the market. They’re the price of admission.

Since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged over 11% annually, but that includes an average drawdown of about 32% every five years. The reward and the risk are inseparable.

Panic is the illusion. Recovery is the reality.

What We Do

Our role isn’t just to build portfolios. It’s to build resolve. To help clients remember, in the middle of a crisis, what they believed in and to prevent fear from destroying wealth.

When markets plunge, we don’t panic. We lean in. Because what most investors fear in a downturn—that things will keep getting worse—isn’t the real risk. The real risk is missing out on the upside when the recovery takes off.

And it always explodes.

March 2009: The Fed suspends mark-to-market accounting. Explosion.

December 2018: Trump walks back on firing Fed Chair Powell. Explosion.

March 2020: The Fed announces unlimited support. Explosion.

April 2024: Tariffs are postponed. Explosion.

 

The Takeaway

The most dangerous phrase in investing is, “This time it’s different.” Because in some way, it always is. But in the long-term ways that matter, it never is.

Use this quarter century as your touchstone: 25 years. 7 panics. Same result.

The market doesn’t reward those who avoid fear. It rewards those who endure it.

That’s the value of your plan. That’s the power of staying invested. And that’s why we’re here.

Let’s keep your future moving forward no matter what comes next.